Season Projections 2026
Playoff-Wahrscheinlichkeiten und erwartete Final-Bilanzen
Basierend auf Monte Carlo Simulation (1.000 Saisonverlaeufe) + Pythagorean Win%
Projektions-Methodik
Monte Carlo: 1.000 simulierte Saisonenden — aus diesen wird gezaehlt wie oft ein Team Division gewinnt oder Wild Card erreicht
Regression to Mean: Frueh in der Saison werden aktuelle Win% stark in Richtung .500 korrigiert, spaeter mehr Gewicht auf echte Performance
Pythagorean: Erwartete Win% basierend auf Runs Scored/Allowed — oft besser als echte Win%
Wild Cards: 3 Wild Card Spots pro League (AL + NL), wie im echten MLB-Format
AL East
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑New York Yankees | 37-26 58.7% | 65.0% | 101-61 | 35.3% | 63.8% | 99.1% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 37-24 60.7% | 51.7% | 89-73 | 64.4% | 35.1% | 99.5% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 31-34 47.7% | 47.5% | 77-85 | 0.2% | 29.9% | 30.1% |
| Boston Red Sox | 27-35 43.5% | 49.3% | 76-86 | 0.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 31-34 47.7% | 45.9% | 75-87 | 0.1% | 30.9% | 31.0% |
AL Central
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Cleveland Guardians | 37-29 56.1% | 51.9% | 87-75 | 72.6% | 23.6% | 96.2% |
| Chicago White Sox | 34-30 53.1% | 51.8% | 85-77 | 26.3% | 54.0% | 80.3% |
| Minnesota Twins | 30-36 45.5% | 46.4% | 75-87 | 1.1% | 9.0% | 10.1% |
| Detroit Tigers | 26-39 40.0% | 45.7% | 70-92 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Kansas City Royals | 26-39 40.0% | 41.9% | 67-95 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
AL West
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Seattle Mariners | 34-31 52.3% | 55.3% | 88-74 | 67.7% | 11.2% | 78.9% |
| Texas Rangers | 31-33 48.4% | 50.7% | 81-81 | 19.4% | 18.2% | 37.6% |
| Houston Astros | 30-36 45.5% | 46.6% | 75-87 | 3.5% | 5.2% | 8.7% |
| Athletics | 30-34 46.9% | 42.5% | 72-90 | 9.4% | 12.0% | 21.4% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 24-41 36.9% | 41.3% | 64-98 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NL East
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Atlanta Braves | 44-21 67.7% | 68.0% | 110-52 | 99.9% | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| Washington Nationals | 33-32 50.8% | 51.1% | 83-79 | 0.1% | 26.6% | 26.7% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 34-30 53.1% | 46.0% | 79-83 | 0.0% | 51.6% | 51.6% |
| Miami Marlins | 30-35 46.2% | 46.3% | 75-87 | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| New York Mets | 28-36 43.8% | 48.4% | 75-87 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
NL Central
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Milwaukee Brewers | 39-23 62.9% | 66.1% | 105-57 | 90.0% | 9.3% | 99.3% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 34-31 52.3% | 54.5% | 87-75 | 1.2% | 35.7% | 36.9% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 34-28 54.8% | 49.3% | 83-79 | 6.7% | 59.8% | 66.5% |
| Chicago Cubs | 34-31 52.3% | 50.6% | 83-79 | 1.7% | 35.4% | 37.1% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 31-32 49.2% | 42.5% | 73-89 | 0.4% | 12.3% | 12.7% |
NL West
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Los Angeles Dodgers | 42-23 64.6% | 72.7% | 113-49 | 98.7% | 1.1% | 99.8% |
| San Diego Padres | 33-30 52.4% | 47.4% | 80-82 | 0.5% | 37.6% | 38.1% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 33-31 51.6% | 47.8% | 80-82 | 0.8% | 26.9% | 27.7% |
| San Francisco Giants | 26-39 40.0% | 42.4% | 67-95 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 24-41 36.9% | 37.4% | 60-102 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Top Playoff Contenders
Atlanta Braves
44-21 → proj. 110-52
100%
Playoff
Div: 100%WC: 0%RunDiff: +115
Los Angeles Dodgers
42-23 → proj. 113-49
100%
Playoff
Div: 99%WC: 1%RunDiff: +141
Tampa Bay Rays
37-24 → proj. 89-73
100%
Playoff
Div: 64%WC: 35%RunDiff: +10
Milwaukee Brewers
39-23 → proj. 105-57
99%
Playoff
Div: 90%WC: 9%RunDiff: +97
New York Yankees
37-26 → proj. 101-61
99%
Playoff
Div: 35%WC: 64%RunDiff: +91
Cleveland Guardians
37-29 → proj. 87-75
96%
Playoff
Div: 73%WC: 24%RunDiff: +11
Chicago White Sox
34-30 → proj. 85-77
80%
Playoff
Div: 26%WC: 54%RunDiff: +12
Seattle Mariners
34-31 → proj. 88-74
79%
Playoff
Div: 68%WC: 11%RunDiff: +30
St. Louis Cardinals
34-28 → proj. 83-79
67%
Playoff
Div: 7%WC: 60%RunDiff: -4
Philadelphia Phillies
34-30 → proj. 79-83
52%
Playoff
Div: 0%WC: 52%RunDiff: -23
San Diego Padres
33-30 → proj. 80-82
38%
Playoff
Div: 1%WC: 38%RunDiff: -14
Texas Rangers
31-33 → proj. 81-81
38%
Playoff
Div: 19%WC: 18%RunDiff: +4
Hinweis: Projektionen basieren auf Monte Carlo Simulation mit Regression-to-Mean. Keine Beriucksichtigung von Trades, Verletzungen oder Wetter. Simulation laeuft neu bei jedem Seiten-Aufruf.
Datenquelle: MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com)Methodik: Monte Carlo (N=1.000) + Pythagorean Win% (RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83))Aktualisierung: Live-Daten, Cache 5 MinutenInspiriert von: FanGraphs Playoff Odds