Season Projections 2026
Playoff-Wahrscheinlichkeiten und erwartete Final-Bilanzen
Basierend auf Monte Carlo Simulation (1.000 Saisonverlaeufe) + Pythagorean Win%
Projektions-Methodik
Monte Carlo: 1.000 simulierte Saisonenden — aus diesen wird gezaehlt wie oft ein Team Division gewinnt oder Wild Card erreicht
Regression to Mean: Frueh in der Saison werden aktuelle Win% stark in Richtung .500 korrigiert, spaeter mehr Gewicht auf echte Performance
Pythagorean: Erwartete Win% basierend auf Runs Scored/Allowed — oft besser als echte Win%
Wild Cards: 3 Wild Card Spots pro League (AL + NL), wie im echten MLB-Format
AL East
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑New York Yankees | 17-9 65.4% | 67.9% | 109-53 | 80.6% | 18.6% | 99.2% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 13-13 50.0% | 51.1% | 83-79 | 4.3% | 49.7% | 54.0% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 14-11 56.0% | 47.1% | 79-83 | 14.9% | 68.0% | 82.9% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 10-15 40.0% | 39.3% | 64-98 | 0.2% | 9.2% | 9.4% |
| Boston Red Sox | 9-17 34.6% | 38.0% | 61-101 | 0.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
AL Central
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Detroit Tigers | 14-13 51.9% | 54.7% | 88-74 | 29.3% | 31.8% | 61.1% |
| Minnesota Twins | 12-14 46.2% | 52.6% | 83-79 | 7.4% | 23.1% | 30.5% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 15-12 55.6% | 48.4% | 80-82 | 60.6% | 21.4% | 82.0% |
| Chicago White Sox | 11-15 42.3% | 40.7% | 66-96 | 2.4% | 11.5% | 13.9% |
| Kansas City Royals | 9-17 34.6% | 36.9% | 59-103 | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% |
AL West
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Texas Rangers | 13-13 50.0% | 53.5% | 86-76 | 29.2% | 22.4% | 51.6% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 12-15 44.4% | 52.6% | 83-79 | 7.8% | 12.9% | 20.7% |
| Seattle Mariners | 12-15 44.4% | 51.3% | 81-81 | 7.1% | 11.3% | 18.4% |
| Athletics | 14-12 53.8% | 46.9% | 78-84 | 55.0% | 15.7% | 70.7% |
| Houston Astros | 10-17 37.0% | 43.7% | 69-93 | 0.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% |
NL East
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Atlanta Braves | 19-8 70.4% | 72.6% | 117-45 | 98.7% | 0.8% | 99.5% |
| Miami Marlins | 13-13 50.0% | 52.7% | 85-77 | 1.2% | 12.1% | 13.3% |
| Washington Nationals | 11-16 40.7% | 44.5% | 71-91 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| New York Mets | 9-17 34.6% | 39.1% | 62-100 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 8-18 30.8% | 30.3% | 49-113 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NL Central
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Chicago Cubs | 17-9 65.4% | 66.4% | 107-55 | 44.4% | 42.8% | 87.2% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 15-11 57.7% | 60.2% | 97-65 | 9.9% | 40.8% | 50.7% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 13-12 52.0% | 56.7% | 91-71 | 2.1% | 16.4% | 18.5% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 17-9 65.4% | 49.6% | 84-78 | 38.7% | 46.6% | 85.3% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 14-11 56.0% | 45.4% | 76-86 | 4.9% | 30.1% | 35.0% |
NL West
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Los Angeles Dodgers | 17-9 65.4% | 70.3% | 113-49 | 38.4% | 47.2% | 85.6% |
| San Diego Padres | 17-8 68.0% | 56.7% | 95-67 | 56.8% | 32.1% | 88.9% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 14-11 56.0% | 47.0% | 78-84 | 4.5% | 28.5% | 33.0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 11-16 40.7% | 43.9% | 70-92 | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| San Francisco Giants | 11-15 42.3% | 38.8% | 64-98 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
Top Playoff Contenders
Atlanta Braves
19-8 → proj. 117-45
100%
Playoff
Div: 99%WC: 1%RunDiff: +64
New York Yankees
17-9 → proj. 109-53
99%
Playoff
Div: 81%WC: 19%RunDiff: +45
San Diego Padres
17-8 → proj. 95-67
89%
Playoff
Div: 57%WC: 32%RunDiff: +15
Chicago Cubs
17-9 → proj. 107-55
87%
Playoff
Div: 44%WC: 43%RunDiff: +45
Los Angeles Dodgers
17-9 → proj. 113-49
86%
Playoff
Div: 38%WC: 47%RunDiff: +53
Cincinnati Reds
17-9 → proj. 84-78
85%
Playoff
Div: 39%WC: 47%RunDiff: -1
Tampa Bay Rays
14-11 → proj. 79-83
83%
Playoff
Div: 15%WC: 68%RunDiff: -8
Cleveland Guardians
15-12 → proj. 80-82
82%
Playoff
Div: 61%WC: 21%RunDiff: -4
Athletics
14-12 → proj. 78-84
71%
Playoff
Div: 55%WC: 16%RunDiff: -8
Detroit Tigers
14-13 → proj. 88-74
61%
Playoff
Div: 29%WC: 32%RunDiff: +12
Baltimore Orioles
13-13 → proj. 83-79
54%
Playoff
Div: 4%WC: 50%RunDiff: +3
Texas Rangers
13-13 → proj. 86-76
52%
Playoff
Div: 29%WC: 22%RunDiff: +8
Hinweis: Projektionen basieren auf Monte Carlo Simulation mit Regression-to-Mean. Keine Beriucksichtigung von Trades, Verletzungen oder Wetter. Simulation laeuft neu bei jedem Seiten-Aufruf.
Datenquelle: MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com)Methodik: Monte Carlo (N=1.000) + Pythagorean Win% (RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83))Aktualisierung: Live-Daten, Cache 5 MinutenInspiriert von: FanGraphs Playoff Odds