Season Projections 2026
Playoff-Wahrscheinlichkeiten und erwartete Final-Bilanzen
Basierend auf Monte Carlo Simulation (1.000 Saisonverlaeufe) + Pythagorean Win%
Projektions-Methodik
Monte Carlo: 1.000 simulierte Saisonenden — aus diesen wird gezaehlt wie oft ein Team Division gewinnt oder Wild Card erreicht
Regression to Mean: Frueh in der Saison werden aktuelle Win% stark in Richtung .500 korrigiert, spaeter mehr Gewicht auf echte Performance
Pythagorean: Erwartete Win% basierend auf Runs Scored/Allowed — oft besser als echte Win%
Wild Cards: 3 Wild Card Spots pro League (AL + NL), wie im echten MLB-Format
AL East
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Tampa Bay Rays | 98-64 60.5% | 55.7% | 98-64 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| New York Yankees | 93-68 57.8% | 59.3% | 94-68 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Boston Red Sox | 87-75 53.7% | 55.5% | 87-75 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 79-82 49.1% | 48.7% | 79-83 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 79-83 48.8% | 46.9% | 79-83 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AL Central
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Cleveland Guardians | 85-77 52.5% | 50.7% | 85-77 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Chicago White Sox | 84-78 51.9% | 53.4% | 84-78 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Minnesota Twins | 77-85 47.5% | 46.5% | 77-85 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Detroit Tigers | 76-86 46.9% | 54.7% | 76-86 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas City Royals | 69-93 42.6% | 42.7% | 69-93 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AL West
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Houston Astros | 81-81 50.0% | 48.0% | 81-81 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Texas Rangers | 80-82 49.4% | 47.0% | 80-82 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seattle Mariners | 76-86 46.9% | 46.2% | 76-86 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Athletics | 64-98 39.5% | 36.9% | 64-98 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 62-100 38.3% | 43.7% | 62-100 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NL East
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Atlanta Braves | 94-68 58.0% | 57.7% | 94-68 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 88-74 54.3% | 51.0% | 88-74 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Miami Marlins | 80-82 49.4% | 50.2% | 80-82 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Washington Nationals | 77-85 47.5% | 50.3% | 77-85 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New York Mets | 74-88 45.7% | 48.0% | 74-88 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NL Central
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Milwaukee Brewers | 103-59 63.6% | 63.3% | 103-59 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Chicago Cubs | 89-73 54.9% | 58.6% | 89-73 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 82-80 50.6% | 51.7% | 82-80 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 77-85 47.5% | 48.2% | 77-85 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 75-87 46.3% | 40.3% | 75-87 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NL West
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Los Angeles Dodgers | 100-62 61.7% | 62.9% | 100-62 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| San Diego Padres | 91-71 56.2% | 52.7% | 91-71 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 86-76 53.1% | 50.6% | 86-76 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Francisco Giants | 65-97 40.1% | 44.2% | 65-97 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 58-104 35.8% | 39.7% | 58-104 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Top Playoff Contenders
Tampa Bay Rays
98-64 → proj. 98-64
100%
Playoff
Div: 100%WC: 0%RunDiff: +86
New York Yankees
93-68 → proj. 94-68
100%
Playoff
Div: 0%WC: 100%RunDiff: +138
Boston Red Sox
87-75 → proj. 87-75
100%
Playoff
Div: 0%WC: 100%RunDiff: +78
Cleveland Guardians
85-77 → proj. 85-77
100%
Playoff
Div: 100%WC: 0%RunDiff: +11
Chicago White Sox
84-78 → proj. 84-78
100%
Playoff
Div: 0%WC: 100%RunDiff: +56
Houston Astros
81-81 → proj. 81-81
100%
Playoff
Div: 100%WC: 0%RunDiff: -32
Atlanta Braves
94-68 → proj. 94-68
100%
Playoff
Div: 100%WC: 0%RunDiff: +116
Philadelphia Phillies
88-74 → proj. 88-74
100%
Playoff
Div: 0%WC: 100%RunDiff: +15
Milwaukee Brewers
103-59 → proj. 103-59
100%
Playoff
Div: 100%WC: 0%RunDiff: +214
Chicago Cubs
89-73 → proj. 89-73
100%
Playoff
Div: 0%WC: 100%RunDiff: +147
Los Angeles Dodgers
100-62 → proj. 100-62
100%
Playoff
Div: 100%WC: 0%RunDiff: +201
San Diego Padres
91-71 → proj. 91-71
100%
Playoff
Div: 0%WC: 100%RunDiff: +41
Hinweis: Projektionen basieren auf Monte Carlo Simulation mit Regression-to-Mean. Keine Beriucksichtigung von Trades, Verletzungen oder Wetter. Simulation laeuft neu bei jedem Seiten-Aufruf.
Datenquelle: MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com)Methodik: Monte Carlo (N=1.000) + Pythagorean Win% (RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83))Aktualisierung: Live-Daten, Cache 5 MinutenInspiriert von: FanGraphs Playoff Odds