Season Projections 2026
Playoff-Wahrscheinlichkeiten und erwartete Final-Bilanzen
Basierend auf Monte Carlo Simulation (1.000 Saisonverlaeufe) + Pythagorean Win%
Projektions-Methodik
Monte Carlo: 1.000 simulierte Saisonenden — aus diesen wird gezaehlt wie oft ein Team Division gewinnt oder Wild Card erreicht
Regression to Mean: Frueh in der Saison werden aktuelle Win% stark in Richtung .500 korrigiert, spaeter mehr Gewicht auf echte Performance
Pythagorean: Erwartete Win% basierend auf Runs Scored/Allowed — oft besser als echte Win%
Wild Cards: 3 Wild Card Spots pro League (AL + NL), wie im echten MLB-Format
AL East
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑New York Yankees | 57-45 55.9% | 59.2% | 92-70 | 27.3% | 71.5% | 98.8% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 59-43 57.8% | 53.1% | 91-71 | 71.3% | 28.3% | 99.6% |
| Boston Red Sox | 52-49 51.5% | 55.1% | 86-76 | 1.1% | 68.9% | 70.0% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 50-53 48.5% | 48.8% | 79-83 | 0.3% | 20.5% | 20.8% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 47-56 45.6% | 43.6% | 73-89 | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
AL Central
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Chicago White Sox | 54-47 53.5% | 54.4% | 87-75 | 64.8% | 23.1% | 87.9% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 54-50 51.9% | 49.3% | 83-79 | 28.8% | 44.6% | 73.4% |
| Detroit Tigers | 49-54 47.6% | 53.1% | 80-82 | 1.8% | 8.3% | 10.1% |
| Minnesota Twins | 51-53 49.0% | 47.3% | 78-84 | 4.6% | 15.4% | 20.0% |
| Kansas City Royals | 43-61 41.3% | 41.0% | 67-95 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AL West
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Seattle Mariners | 51-52 49.5% | 51.9% | 82-80 | 31.9% | 6.7% | 38.6% |
| Texas Rangers | 51-51 50.0% | 46.9% | 79-83 | 54.2% | 5.9% | 60.1% |
| Houston Astros | 50-54 48.1% | 45.9% | 77-85 | 13.7% | 5.0% | 18.7% |
| Athletics | 43-59 42.2% | 39.4% | 67-95 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 41-62 39.8% | 44.4% | 67-95 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NL East
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Atlanta Braves | 60-42 58.8% | 60.5% | 96-66 | 89.8% | 8.9% | 98.7% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 56-47 54.4% | 48.5% | 85-77 | 9.2% | 70.2% | 79.4% |
| Washington Nationals | 52-51 50.5% | 52.1% | 83-79 | 0.4% | 18.4% | 18.8% |
| Miami Marlins | 52-51 50.5% | 51.1% | 82-80 | 0.6% | 19.2% | 19.8% |
| New York Mets | 43-60 41.7% | 43.5% | 69-93 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NL Central
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Milwaukee Brewers | 64-38 62.7% | 63.4% | 102-60 | 97.6% | 2.4% | 100.0% |
| Chicago Cubs | 57-45 55.9% | 56.1% | 91-71 | 2.3% | 86.8% | 89.1% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 53-50 51.5% | 54.5% | 85-77 | 0.0% | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 52-50 51.0% | 49.6% | 82-80 | 0.1% | 20.1% | 20.2% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 47-54 46.5% | 43.7% | 74-88 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
NL West
| Team | W-L | Pyth% | Proj W-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 👑Los Angeles Dodgers | 65-38 63.1% | 65.4% | 104-58 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 54-49 52.4% | 50.1% | 84-78 | 0.0% | 42.0% | 42.0% |
| San Diego Padres | 50-53 48.5% | 46.9% | 78-84 | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| San Francisco Giants | 42-60 41.2% | 43.5% | 68-94 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 41-63 39.4% | 41.6% | 65-97 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Top Playoff Contenders
Milwaukee Brewers
64-38 → proj. 102-60
100%
Playoff
Div: 98%WC: 2%RunDiff: +133
Los Angeles Dodgers
65-38 → proj. 104-58
100%
Playoff
Div: 100%WC: 0%RunDiff: +157
Tampa Bay Rays
59-43 → proj. 91-71
100%
Playoff
Div: 71%WC: 28%RunDiff: +30
New York Yankees
57-45 → proj. 92-70
99%
Playoff
Div: 27%WC: 72%RunDiff: +88
Atlanta Braves
60-42 → proj. 96-66
99%
Playoff
Div: 90%WC: 9%RunDiff: +106
Chicago Cubs
57-45 → proj. 91-71
89%
Playoff
Div: 2%WC: 87%RunDiff: +65
Chicago White Sox
54-47 → proj. 87-75
88%
Playoff
Div: 65%WC: 23%RunDiff: +44
Philadelphia Phillies
56-47 → proj. 85-77
79%
Playoff
Div: 9%WC: 70%RunDiff: -15
Cleveland Guardians
54-50 → proj. 83-79
73%
Playoff
Div: 29%WC: 45%RunDiff: -6
Boston Red Sox
52-49 → proj. 86-76
70%
Playoff
Div: 1%WC: 69%RunDiff: +45
Texas Rangers
51-51 → proj. 79-83
60%
Playoff
Div: 54%WC: 6%RunDiff: -30
Arizona Diamondbacks
54-49 → proj. 84-78
42%
Playoff
Div: 0%WC: 42%RunDiff: +1
Hinweis: Projektionen basieren auf Monte Carlo Simulation mit Regression-to-Mean. Keine Beriucksichtigung von Trades, Verletzungen oder Wetter. Simulation laeuft neu bei jedem Seiten-Aufruf.
Datenquelle: MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com)Methodik: Monte Carlo (N=1.000) + Pythagorean Win% (RS^1.83 / (RS^1.83 + RA^1.83))Aktualisierung: Live-Daten, Cache 5 MinutenInspiriert von: FanGraphs Playoff Odds